The day after the elimination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in a US-Israeli military operation on Saturday, many senior US officials are skeptical about the possibility of a rapid regime change in Tehran, according to several sources close to the intelligence services.
Before and after the offensive, US President Donald Trump hinted that overthrowing the Iranian theocratic system was among Washington’s objectives, in addition to neutralizing the ballistic and nuclear programs of the Islamic Republic. In a video posted on Truth Social on Sunday, he urged “Iranian patriots yearning for freedom” to “seize this moment” to take back their country.
However, behind the scenes, assessments are much more cautious. Three US officials familiar with intelligence analysis believe that the weakened and fragmented Iranian opposition is not capable of overthrowing the regime in place since 1979 in the short term. While no scenario is completely ruled out, the imminent fall of power seems unlikely, despite the losses suffered by the ruling apparatus under the ongoing strikes and the regime’s increased unpopularity exacerbated by the particularly violent suppression of January protests.
CIA analyses presented to the White House before the attack reportedly concluded that in the event of Khamenei’s disappearance, he would likely be replaced by equally radical figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or conservative clerics. IRGC officials, who benefit from a vast network of interests and internal loyalties, would have little incentive to voluntarily capitulate.
Another intelligence report also highlighted the absence of defections within the IRGC during the recent massive protests, seen by several sources as a prerequisite for any successful revolution.
On Sunday, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian announced the formation of a provisional leadership council, including the Chief Justice and a member of the Guardian Council, to temporarily assume the functions of the Supreme Leader. At the same time, the head of the Security Council Ali Larijani accused Washington and Israel of seeking to destabilize and divide Iran, warning separatist groups against any action.
Debates in Washington not only revolve around the survival of the regime but also the impact of Khamenei’s death on nuclear negotiations and Iran’s ability to rebuild its military infrastructure. Despite his confrontational rhetoric, Donald Trump indicated on Sunday that he wants to reopen communication channels with Tehran, a sign that the White House does not anticipate, at least in the short term, the collapse of the existing power.
